Manyan masana'antun na kwakwalwan ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya suna aiki tuƙuru don shawo kan sanyin sanyi.Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix da Micron suna rage samar da kayayyaki, da magance matsalolin ƙididdiga, adana kuɗin kuɗi, da jinkirta ci gaban fasaha na ci gaba don jimre wa ƙarancin buƙatar ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya."Muna cikin wani lokaci na raguwar riba".A ranar 27 ga Oktoba, Samsung Electronics ya gaya wa masu saka hannun jari a taron rahoton kudi na kwata na uku cewa, ban da haka, kayan aikin kamfanin ya karu cikin sauri a cikin kwata na uku.
Ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya shine reshe mafi girma na kasuwar semiconductor, tare da sararin kasuwa kusan dala biliyan 160 a cikin 2021. Hakanan ana iya ganin shi a ko'ina cikin samfuran lantarki.Yana da daidaitaccen samfur wanda ya haɓaka sosai a kasuwannin duniya.Masana'antar tana da tabbataccen lokaci tare da canje-canje a cikin kaya, buƙata, da iya aiki.Samar da ribar masana'anta suna canzawa sosai tare da jujjuyawar masana'antu.
Dangane da binciken TrendForce Jibang Consulting, yawan haɓakar kasuwar NAND a cikin 2022 zai zama 23.2% kawai, wanda shine mafi ƙarancin girma a cikin shekaru 8 da suka gabata;Adadin haɓakar ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya (DRAM) shine kawai 19%, kuma ana tsammanin zai ƙara raguwa zuwa 14.1% a cikin 2023.
Jeffrey Mathews, babban manazarci kan ayyukan fasahar fasahar wayar salula a Strategy Analytics, ya shaida wa manema labarai cewa yawan wadatar da kasuwar ya haifar da koma bayan tattalin arziki, wanda kuma shi ne babban dalilin da ke haifar da karancin farashin DRAM da NAND.A cikin 2021, masana'antun za su kasance da kyakkyawan fata game da haɓaka samarwa.NAND da DRAM har yanzu za su kasance cikin ƙarancin wadata.Yayin da bangaren buƙatu ya fara raguwa a cikin 2022, kasuwa za ta yi yawa.Wani SK Hynix ya ce a cikin rahoton kudi na kwata na uku cewa bukatar kayayyakin DRAM da NAND sun yi kasala, kuma duka tallace-tallace da farashin sun ragu.
Sravan Kundojjala, darektan sabis na fasaha na sashin wayar hannu na Dabarun Dabaru, ya shaida wa manema labarai cewa koma bayan tattalin arziki na karshe ya faru ne a shekarar 2019, lokacin da kudaden shiga da kuma kashe kudade na duk kamfanonin ajiyar bayanai suka ragu sosai, kuma kasuwar mai rauni ta dauki kashi biyu cikin hudu kafin ta durkushe.Akwai wasu kamanceceniya tsakanin 2022 da 2019, amma a wannan lokacin daidaitawar da alama ya fi tsauri.
Jeffrey Mathews ya ce wannan zagayowar ya kuma shafi karancin bukata, koma bayan tattalin arziki da kuma tashe-tashen hankula na kasa.Bukatar wayoyin hannu da kwamfutoci, manyan direbobin ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya na shekaru da yawa, suna da rauni sosai kuma ana sa ran za su ci gaba har zuwa 2023.
Samsung Electronics ya ce ga na'urorin tafi-da-gidanka, mai yiwuwa bukatar ta ci gaba da yin rauni da sannu a hankali a farkon rabin shekara mai zuwa, kuma kwarin gwiwar masu amfani zai kasance ƙasa da ƙasa ƙarƙashin rinjayar raunin yanayi.Don PC, kayan da aka tara saboda ƙananan tallace-tallace za su ƙare a farkon rabin shekara mai zuwa, kuma yana yiwuwa a ga farfadowa mai mahimmanci a cikin buƙata.Kamfanin zai ci gaba da mai da hankali kan ko tattalin arzikin zai iya daidaitawa a cikin rabin na biyu na shekara mai zuwa da alamun farfadowar masana'antu.
Sravan Kundojjala ya ce cibiyar bayanai, mota, masana'antu, fasaha na wucin gadi da filayen sadarwa suna ba masu samar da ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya haɓaka mafi girma a nan gaba.Micron, SK Hynix da Samsung Electronics duk sun ambaci bayyanar wasu sabbin direbobi a cikin rahoton kuɗi na kwata na uku: cibiyoyin bayanai da sabar za su zama ƙarfin tuƙi na gaba a cikin kasuwar ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya.
Babban kaya
Na'urar lantarki ta asali ta haɗa da tsarin, na'urori masu auna firikwensin, na'urori masu sarrafawa, ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya da masu kunnawa.Ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya tana da alhakin aikin ƙwaƙwalwar ajiyar bayanai, wanda za'a iya raba zuwa ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya (DRAM) da ƙwaƙwalwar filashi (NAND) bisa ga nau'in samfurin.Samfurin gama-gari na DRAM shine tsarin ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya.Ana iya ganin Flash a ko'ina cikin rayuwa, gami da katin microSD, U faifai, SSD (tsayayyen faifai), da sauransu.
Kasuwar ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya ta tattara sosai.Dangane da bayanan Ƙungiyar Ƙididdigar Kasuwanci ta Duniya (WSTS), Samsung, Micron da SK Hynix tare suna lissafin kusan kashi 94% na kasuwar DRAM.A cikin filin NAND Flash, Samsung, Man Armor, SK Hynix, Western Digital, Micron da Intel tare suna lissafin kusan 98%.
Dangane da bayanan tuntuɓar TrendForce Jibang, farashin DRAM ya faɗi gabaɗaya tun farkon shekara, kuma farashin kwangilar a rabin na biyu na 2022 zai faɗi sama da 10% kowace kwata.Hakanan an ƙara rage farashin NAND.A cikin kwata na uku, an ƙara raguwa daga 15-20% zuwa 30-35%.
A ranar 27 ga Oktoba, Samsung Electronics ya fitar da sakamakon kwata na uku, wanda ya nuna cewa sashen semiconductor (DS) da ke da alhakin kasuwancin guntu ya samu kudaden shiga na tiriliyan 23.02 a cikin kwata na uku, kasa da tsammanin masu sharhi.Kudaden shiga na sashen da ke da alhakin kasuwancin ajiya ya ci tiriliyan 15.23, ya ragu da kashi 28% a wata da kashi 27% a shekara.Samsung Electronics ya haɗa da semiconductor, kayan aikin gida, bangarori da wayoyi.
Kamfanin ya ce raunin ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya ya rufe haɓakar haɓakar ayyukan gabaɗaya.Jimillar babbar ribar riba ta ragu da kashi 2.7%, kuma ribar aiki ita ma ta ragu da kashi 4.1 zuwa kashi 14.1%.
A ranar 26 ga Oktoba, kudaden shiga na SK Hynix a cikin kwata na uku ya samu nasarar dala tiriliyan 10.98, kuma ribar aiki da ya samu ya kai tiriliyan 1.66, inda tallace-tallace da ribar aiki suka fado da kashi 20.5% da kashi 60.5% a wata.A ranar 29 ga Satumba, Micron, wata babbar masana'anta, ta fitar da rahotonta na kuɗi na kwata na huɗu na 2022 (Yuni Agusta 2022).Kudaden shigansa ya kasance dalar Amurka biliyan 6.64 kawai, ƙasa da kashi 23% a wata da kashi 20% a shekara.
Samsung Electronics ya ce manyan dalilan da ke haifar da raunin buƙatun su ne matsalolin macro na yau da kullun da kuma gyare-gyaren kaya da abokan ciniki ke fuskanta, wanda ya fi yadda ake tsammani.Kamfanin ya fahimci cewa kasuwar ta damu da girman matakin da yake da shi saboda raunin kayan ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya.
Samsung Electronics ya ce yana kokarin sarrafa kayan sa zuwa daidaito.Bugu da ƙari, matakin ƙididdiga na yanzu ba za a iya yin hukunci da ƙa'idodin da suka gabata ba, saboda abokan ciniki suna fuskantar zagaye na gyare-gyare na kaya, kuma daidaitawar daidaitawa ya wuce tsammanin.
Jeffrey Mathews ya ce a baya, sakamakon yanayin kasuwar ajiyar kayayyaki, masana'antun sun yi gaggawar dawo da bukatu da fadada kayan aiki.Tare da raguwar buƙatun abokin ciniki, wadatar ta kasance a hankali.Yanzu suna fama da matsalolin kaya.
Meguiar Light ya ce kusan dukkanin manyan abokan ciniki a kasuwar ƙarshe suna yin gyare-gyaren ƙira.Sravan Kundojjala ya shaida wa manema labarai cewa, a halin yanzu, wasu masu samar da kayayyaki suna kulla yarjejeniyoyin dogon lokaci tare da kwastomomi, da fatan rage kayayyakin da aka gama a cikin kididdigar, kuma suna kokarin sanya kayan maye gurbinsu don daidaita duk wani sauye-sauyen da ake bukata.
Dabarun Conservative
"A koyaushe muna jaddada haɓaka farashi don sanya tsarin farashi ya fi kowane mai fafatawa, wanda shine hanyar tabbatar da ingantaccen riba a halin yanzu".Samsung Electronics ya yi imanin cewa samfuran suna da elasticity na farashin, wanda za'a iya amfani dashi don ƙirƙirar wasu buƙatu.Tabbas, tasirin yana da iyaka sosai, kuma yanayin farashin gabaɗaya har yanzu ba a iya sarrafa shi.
SK Hynix ya ce a taron rahoton kudi na kwata na uku cewa domin inganta farashi, kamfanin ya yi kokarin inganta rabon tallace-tallace da samar da sabbin kayayyaki a cikin kwata na uku, amma raguwar farashi mai kaifi ya wuce rage farashin, da kuma ribar aiki kuma. ya ƙi.
Dangane da bayanan tuntuɓar TrendForce Jibang, abubuwan ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya na Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix da Micron sun ci gaba da haɓaka 12-13% kawai a wannan shekara.A cikin 2023, fitowar Samsung Electronics zai ragu da 8%, SK Hynix da 6.6%, Micron da 4.3%
Manyan masana'antu suna taka-tsan-tsan wajen kashe kudi da fadada samarwa.SK Hynix ya ce yawan kudaden da ake kashewa a babban birnin kasar na shekara mai zuwa zai ragu da fiye da kashi 50 cikin dari a duk shekara, kuma ana sa ran zuba jari na bana zai kai kusan tiriliyan 10-20.Micron ya kuma ce zai rage yawan kudaden da yake kashewa a kasafin kudi na shekarar 2023 tare da rage yawan amfani da kamfanonin kera.
TrendForce Jibang Consulting ya ce, ta fuskar ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya, idan aka kwatanta da Samsung Electronics' Q4 2023 da Q4 2022 tsare-tsaren zuba jari, 40,000 ne kawai za a kara a tsakiya;SK Hynix ya ƙara fina-finai 20000, yayin da Meguiar ya fi matsakaici, tare da ƙarin fina-finai 5000 kawai.Bugu da ƙari, masana'antun sun fara gina sababbin tsire-tsire masu ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya.A halin yanzu, ci gaban tsire-tsire yana ci gaba, amma yanayin gaba ɗaya yana jinkirta.
Samsung Electronics yana da kyakkyawan fata game da haɓaka samarwa.Kamfanin ya ce zai ci gaba da kula da matakin da ya dace na zuba jarurruka na ababen more rayuwa don tinkarar matsakaita - da kuma bukatar dogon lokaci, amma jarin sa a cikin kayan aiki zai kasance mafi sassauƙa.Kodayake buƙatun kasuwa na yanzu yana raguwa, kamfani yana buƙatar shirya don dawo da buƙatu a cikin matsakaici da kuma dogon lokaci daga hangen nesa, don haka kamfanin ba zai rage yawan samarwa ba ta hanyar wucin gadi don saduwa da isar da ma'auni na ɗan gajeren lokaci.
Jeffrey Mathews ya ce, rage kashe kudade da fitar da kayayyaki zai kuma yi tasiri kan bincike da bunkasar fasahar kere-kere na masana'antun, kuma saurin hawa kan nodes na ci gaba zai ragu, don haka rage kudin da ake kashewa (bit cost).
Ana sa ran shekara mai zuwa
Masana'antun daban-daban suna bayyana kasuwar ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya daban.Dangane da sashin tasha, rundunonin tuƙi guda uku na ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya sune wayoyi masu wayo, PC da sabar.
TrendForce Jibang Consulting yayi hasashen cewa rabon kasuwar ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya daga sabobin zai girma zuwa 36% a cikin 2023, kusa da rabon wayoyin hannu.Ƙwaƙwalwar ajiyar wayar hannu da ake amfani da ita don wayar hannu tana da ƙasa da sararin sama, wanda za a iya rage shi daga ainihin 38.5% zuwa 37.3%.Masu amfani da lantarki a cikin kasuwar ƙwaƙwalwar ajiyar filasha za su yi rauni sosai, tare da wayowin komai da ruwan da ke haɓaka da kashi 2.8% yayin da kwamfyutocin kwamfyutoci suka ragu da kashi 8-9%.
Liu Jiahao, manajan bincike na Jibang Consulting, ya ce a "2022 Jibang Consulting Semiconductor Summiconductor and Storage Industry" a ranar 12 ga Oktoba cewa, ci gaban ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya za a iya raba zuwa da dama muhimmanci motsa jiki, tafiyar da kwamfutar tafi-da-gidanka daga 2008 zuwa 2011;A cikin 2012, tare da shaharar na'urori masu wayo kamar wayoyin hannu da kwamfutar hannu, da kuma amfani da Intanet, waɗannan na'urori sun maye gurbin kwamfutar tafi-da-gidanka a matsayin babban ƙarfin motsa ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya;A cikin lokacin 2016-2019, aikace-aikacen Intanet sun kara fadada, sabobin da cibiyoyin bayanai sun zama mafi mahimmanci kamar kayan aikin dijital, kuma adanawa ya fara samun sabon haɓaka.
Jeffrey Mathews ya ce zagayen karshe na koma bayan bayanan da aka samu ya faru ne a shekarar 2019, saboda bukatar wayoyin komai da ruwanka, babbar kasuwar tashar tasha, ta ragu.A wancan lokacin, tsarin samar da kayayyaki ya tara adadi mai yawa, bukatu na masana'antun wayoyin hannu ya ragu, kuma NAND da DRAM ASP (matsakaicin farashin siyarwa) na wayoyin hannu suma sun sami raguwar lambobi biyu.
Liu Jiahao ya bayyana cewa, a tsakanin shekarar 2020 zuwa 2022, yanayin annobar cutar, da sauye-sauye na zamani, da raunin na'urorin lantarki, da sauran abubuwa masu ma'ana, sun bayyana, kuma bukatar masana'antu ta yin amfani da na'ura mai karfin gaske ya fi na da.Ƙarin masana'antun Intanet da na IT sun shimfida cibiyoyin bayanai, wanda kuma ya haifar da ci gaba na dijital a hankali zuwa ga girgije.Bukatar ajiya don sabobin zai zama mafi bayyane.Duk da cewa rabon kasuwa na yanzu yana da karami, cibiyar bayanai da sabar za su zama manyan masu sarrafa kasuwar ajiya a matsakaita da kuma dogon lokaci.
Samsung Electronics zai kara da kayayyakin don sabobin da cibiyoyin bayanai a cikin 2023. Samsung Electronics ya ce, la'akari da zuba jari a cikin muhimman kayayyakin more rayuwa irin su AI da 5G, da bukatar DRAM kayayyakin daga sabobin zai kasance karko a shekara mai zuwa.
Sravan Kundojjala ya ce yawancin masu samar da kayayyaki suna son rage hankalinsu kan kasuwannin PC da wayoyin hannu.A lokaci guda, cibiyar bayanai, mota, masana'antu, basirar wucin gadi da filayen sadarwar suna ba su damar haɓaka.
Jeffrey Mathews ya ce saboda ci gaba da ci gaban fasahar ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya zuwa ga ci gaba da nodes, ana sa ran aikin NAND da DRAM za su cimma nasarar tsalle-tsalle na gaba.Ana sa ran cewa buƙatun manyan kasuwannin ƙarshen kamar cibiyar bayanai, kayan aiki da ƙididdige ƙididdiga za su yi girma sosai, don haka masu ba da kayayyaki suna tuƙi fayil ɗin samfurin ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya.A cikin dogon lokaci, ana fatan masu samar da ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya za su yi taka tsantsan wajen faɗaɗa iya aiki da kuma kula da ingantaccen wadata da horon farashi.
Lokacin aikawa: Nuwamba-08-2022