An yanke farashin guntu, kuma kwakwalwan kwamfuta suna jinkirin siyarwa.Mutane da dama ne ke ta hayaniya da sautin da alama mara hankali tun farkon rabin farkon wannan shekara.A cikin rabin farko na 2022, saboda ƙarancin buƙatu a cikin kasuwar kayan lantarki, masana'antar guntu ta taɓa haifar da raguwar farashin.A cikin rabin na biyu na shekara, makircin ya sake maimaita kansa.
Kwanan nan, labaran CCTV sun ba da rahoton cewa, a matsayin babban ɓangaren tsarin sarrafa lantarki, guntu na STMicroelectronics na ɗaya daga cikin samfuran guntu da ake buƙata a cikin 2021. Ya faɗi kusan yuan 600, raguwar kusan 80%.
Hakazalika, farashin wani guntu a bara ya bambanta da na bana sau goma.Farashin kwakwalwan kwamfuta yana kwatanta da na naman alade, tashi da faduwa.Bambanci tsakanin farashi mafi girma da farashin al'ada na baya yana da ƙari sosai.An ba da rahoton cewa, kafofin watsa labaru sun ba da rahoton cewa guntuwar STMicroelectronics na yuan 600 za ta sami matsakaicin farashin dubun yuan kawai a cikin 2020.
Da alama zazzabin guntu ya wuce.Shin girgijen da ya lullube da'irar fasaha a shekarar da ta gabata yana gab da wargajewa?A cewar Bloomberg, yawancin kamfanonin guntu a halin yanzu sun yi imanin cewa za a sami babban sauyi a wannan kasuwa mai zafi na dogon lokaci a nan gaba, kuma wasu ma sun yi imanin cewa masana'antar semiconductor za ta haifar da koma baya mafi muni cikin shekaru goma.
Wasu kaɗan suna farin ciki, kaɗan suna baƙin ciki, kuma farashin guntu yana da yawa.Baya ga shirun masana'antar, ina jin tsoron cewa akwai kasuwanni marasa adadi a cikin bukin bukin.
Chip down, amma ba gaba ɗaya ba?
Yakin farashin guntu ba ya rabuwa da koma bayan amfani da na'urorin lantarki a duniya.
Za a iya gani daga sabon rahoton kudi na TSMC cewa sana’ar wayar salula da ta taba tallafawa rabin kasar, ba ita ce babbar hanyar samun kudin shiga ba, kuma ana sa ran kashi na wannan harka zai ci gaba da raguwa.Kayayyakin wayoyin komai da ruwanka da kwamfutoci ba su yi kyau kamar watan Janairu ba tun farkon wannan shekara.Dangane da bayanan bincike na CINNO, a farkon rabin shekarar 2022, jigilar kayayyaki ta wayar salula ta kasar Sin SoC ta kai kusan miliyan 134, wanda ya ragu da kusan kashi 16.9% duk shekara.
Dangane da bangaren PC, a cewar kamfanin bincike na kasuwa Mercury Research, a cikin kwata na biyu na wannan shekara, jigilar kayan sarrafa kwamfutocin tebur sun fadi zuwa mafi ƙanƙanci a cikin kusan shekaru 30, kuma jimillar jigilar kayayyaki ta sami raguwa mafi girma a shekara-shekara tun daga lokacin. 1984. Kasuwancin wayo na Koriya ta Kudu ya ragu da kashi 29.2% a kowace shekara a watan Yuli, yayin da fitar da kwamfutoci da kayan aikin taimako ya ragu da kashi 21.9%, kuma jigilar kayayyaki na ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya ya haifar da raguwa tare da raguwar 13.5%.
Bukatun da ke sama yana raguwa, magudanar ruwa na ci gaba da yanke umarni, kuma farashin a zahiri ya yi sanyi
Duk da haka, ya kamata a lura cewa waɗannan kwakwalwan kwamfuta tare da rage farashin ba su da wani tasiri na gaba ɗaya dangane da duk masana'antar semiconductor.Shin guntu ya faɗi da gaske a farashi?A karkashin labarai na "slump", har yanzu akwai masana'antun da ke bullowa yanayin da kuma sanar da hauhawar farashin.Misali, Intel, Qualcomm, Meiman Electronics, Broadcom, da sauransu. suna shirin haɓaka farashin wasu samfuran guntunsu.
Daukar Intel a matsayin misali, a cewar Nikkei, Intel ya sanar da abokan ciniki cewa farashin kayayyakin semiconductor zai karu a rabin na biyu na 2022. Ana sa ran zai kara farashin kayayyaki iri-iri kamar sabar sabar da na'urorin sarrafa CPU na kwamfuta. da na gefe kwakwalwan kwamfuta.Dangane da nau'in, mafi ƙanƙanta yana cikin lambobi ɗaya, kuma haɓaka mafi girma na iya kaiwa 10% zuwa 20%.
Shin guntu yana hawa ko a'a?Ana iya cewa farashin na'urorin na'urori masu amfani da wutar lantarki ya ragu kwatsam saboda raguwar buƙatun, amma buƙatar MCUs a wasu fannonin aikace-aikacen, kamar motoci da sarrafa masana'antu, ya haifar da hauhawar farashin guntu masu alaƙa.Tun daga farkon jigilar kayayyaki na wayar hannu, makomar masana'antar guntu ta kasance mai ban sha'awa a matsayin mai siyar da jinkiri, amma a zahiri,karancin guntu a wasu masana'antu bai ƙare ba tukuna.
Musamman ga guntuwar kera motoci, bayanai daga taron dandalin masana'antu na kasa da kasa na kasar Sin Nansha na shekarar 2022 sun nuna cewa kayayyakin guntu na yanzu ba za su iya biyan kashi 31% na bukatun masu kera motoci a matsakaita ba.Bayanan da aka bayar a cikin watan shine GAC ya fuskanci karancin kwakwalwan kwamfuta 33,000 a cikin kwata na biyu.
Sabbin masana'antar makamashi na tafiya cikin kwanciyar hankali, kuma bai kamata a yi la'akari da bukatar kwakwalwan kwamfuta a nan gaba ba.An ba da rahoton cewa matsakaicin mota yana buƙatar amfani da guntu 500, kuma sabbin motocin makamashi suna ɗaukar ƙarin guntu.A bara, tallace-tallacen motoci na duniya ya kai kimanin miliyan 81.05, wanda ke nufin cewa dukkanin sarkar masana'antar kera motoci na buƙatar guntu biliyan 40.5.
Bugu da kari, manyan kwakwalwan kwamfuta har yanzu suna sama da bagadin kasuwa.A gefe guda, buƙatar kwakwalwan kwamfuta tare da fasahar aiwatar da ci gaba a cikin sarkar masana'antu na sama ba ta taɓa raguwa ba.A baya an bayar da rahoton cewa za a samar da na'urorin TSMC na 3nm da yawa a watan Satumba, kuma Apple zai zama abokin ciniki na farko da zai yi amfani da kwakwalwan kwamfuta na 3nm na TSMC.
An ba da rahoton cewa a shekara mai zuwa, ciki har da sabon processor na A17 da kuma na'urorin M3, Apple zai yi amfani da 3nm na TSMC.A gefe guda kuma, akwai ƙarancin kayan aikin semiconductor masu girma, kuma fitar da ayyukan ci gaba na 3nm da 2nm an ƙaddara su zama ƙasa da ƙasa, kuma ana iya samun tazarar wadata daga 10% zuwa 20% a cikin 2024-2025.
A sakamakon haka, farashin yana da wuyar faduwa.Alamu daban-daban sun gaya mana cewa kwakwalwan kwamfuta suna faɗuwa ɗaya bayan ɗaya, kuma wannan masana'antar ba ta da sauƙi kamar yadda ake gani.
Chips na mabukaci fadowa daga ni'ima?
Wani bangare ya mutu, daya bangaren kuma ya wadata.
Na'urorin lantarki na masu amfani sun wuce mafi kyawun lokaci a cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata.Tare da raguwar matakin amfani da lantarki, a ƙarshe sun sauka daga bagaden.A halin yanzu, yawancin kamfanonin guntu suna shagaltuwa don canza kasuwancin su, daga mabukaci zuwa filayen kera motoci da injiniyoyi.TSMC ya lissafa kasuwar kera motoci a matsayin aikin fifiko a cikin ƴan shekaru masu zuwa.An ba da rahoton cewa, a gefen babban yankin, kasuwancin kera motoci na 'yan wasa na gida na MCU kamar Zhaoyi Innovation, Zhongying Electronics, da China Micro Semiconductor suma suna kara fitowa fili.
Musamman, samfurin MCU na farko na abin hawa na farko na Zhaoyi ya shiga matakin gwajin samfurin abokin ciniki a watan Maris, kuma ana sa ran zai kai ga samar da yawan jama'a a bana;Zhongying Electronics ana amfani da shi ne don sashin sarrafa jiki na MCU, kuma ana sa ran za a buga shi a tsakiyar shekara.Baya;Kamfanin Microelectronics na kasar Sin ya nuna kudurinsa na samar da kwakwalwan kwamfuta masu daraja ta motoci a cikin abubuwan da ta dace.IPO nata na shirin tara yuan miliyan 729, wanda za a yi amfani da yuan miliyan 283 don gudanar da bincike da ayyukan ci gaba na kera motoci.
Wannan abin fahimta ne.Bayan haka, ƙimar ƙirar ƙirar keɓaɓɓu na cikin gida da kwakwalwan kwamfuta ba su wuce 1% ba, ƙimar na'urori masu auna firikwensin ba su wuce 4% ba, kuma ƙimar ganowar ikon semiconductor, ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya, da sadarwa shine 8%, 8%, kuma 3%, bi da bi.Sabbin abubuwan kera motocin makamashi na cikin gida suna haɓaka, kuma gabaɗayan tsarin muhalli masu wayo, gami da tuƙi mai cin gashin kai, suma za su cinye na'urori masu sarrafa kankara da yawa a mataki na gaba.
Kuma yaya zai yi wuya a ci gaba da manne wa guntuwar mabukaci?
A baya dai an ruwaito cewa Samsung ya dakatar da sayen dukkan sassan kasuwanci na wani dan lokaci da suka hada da panel, wayoyin hannu da na'urorin ajiyar bayanai, har ma da yawa daga cikin masana'antun sarrafa ma'adana na Koriya za su dauki matakin rage farashin da fiye da kashi 5% na tallace-tallace.Fasahar Nuvoton, wacce ke mai da hankali kan na'urorin lantarki, ita ma ta sami karuwar ribar fiye da sau 5.5 a bara, tare da samun ribar NT $7.27 a kowacce kaso.A cikin watan Afrilu da Mayu na wannan shekara, aikin ya zama mai fa'ida, inda kudaden shiga ya ragu da 2.18% da 3.04% bi da bi.
Ba za a iya yin bayani da yawa ba, amma bayanan iska sun nuna cewa ya zuwa ranar 9 ga Mayu, kamfanoni 126 na semiconductor a duk faɗin duniya sun sanar da rahoton kuɗin su na kwata na farko na 2022, wanda 16 daga cikinsu sun sami raguwar riba ko shekara. ko da asara.Chips na masu amfani da sauri suna faɗuwa daga tagomashi, kuma motoci da sarrafa masana'antu sun zama wurin neman riba na gaba a cikin kasuwar guntu.
Amma da gaske ne abubuwa suna da sauƙi kamar yadda suke gani?
Musamman ga wasu masana'antun guntu na cikin gida, ƙaura daga filin lantarki na mabukaci zuwa filin kera motoci ya fi abin da zafin kasuwa zai iya yanke shawara.Da farko dai, kwakwalwan kwamfuta na cikin gida yakamata su kasance a ƙasa, kuma filin amfani ya fara matsayi na farko, yana lissafin kashi 27%.Ko da ka kalli duniya, kasuwar cikin gida ita ma babbar kasuwa ce ta semiconductor.Bayanai sun nuna cewa a shekarar 2021, tallace-tallace na semiconductor a kasuwar babban yankin kasar Sin zai kai dalar Amurka biliyan 29.62, karuwar karuwar kashi 58 cikin dari a duk shekara.Ita ce babbar kasuwar semiconductor a duniya, tana lissafin kashi 28.9% na jimlar cinikin semiconductor na duniya..
Na biyu, ita kanta masana'antar guntu tana da ƙarin ribar riba a fagagen wayoyin hannu da 5G.Dauki TSMC a matsayin misali,
Abubuwan jigilar kayayyaki na TSMC suna da kashi 70% na kasuwar MCU na kera motoci, amma a cikin bayanan kudaden shiga na 2020, gudummawar guntuwar kera keɓaɓɓu kawai 3.31%.Nan da Q1 2022, wayoyin hannu na TSMC da manyan ayyukan kwamfuta za su kai kashi 40% da 41% na kudaden shiga, bi da bi, yayin da IoT, automotive, DCE, da sauransu za su yi lissafin 8% kawai, 5%, 3%, da 3 %, bi da bi.
Akwai karancin bukatu, amma ribar tana nan, kuma abin da ke damun shi.Wannan tabbas shine abu mafi wahala a cikin kasuwar semiconductor.
Bayan bunƙasa, bukin masu amfani?
Lokacin da farashin kwakwalwan kwamfuta ya canza, masu amfani sun fi farin ciki.Wayoyin hannu, motoci da ma na'urorin gida masu wayo sun zama wuraren da ake sa ran masu amfani da su akai-akai bayan an rage farashin guntu, musamman wayoyin hannu.Ba da dadewa ba da faduwar farashin guntuwar, wasu mutane sun yi ihu a dandalin sada zumunta na yanar gizo na sayen wayoyin hannu domin samun kudi a rabin na biyu na wannan shekara.
Nan da nan bayan haka, farashin sabon makamashi, farashin kayan lantarki, farashin kayan gida… da sauransu sun zo daya bayan daya.Koyaya, babu wata bayyananniyar yanayin ko za'a sami raguwar farashin daidai a cikin sarkar samfur, amma magana ta gaskiya, wannan guguwar rage farashin guntu ba zai haifar da raguwar farashi mai yawa a kasuwar mabukaci ba.
Bari mu fara duba filin wayar hannu mafi tasiri.A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, masana'antun wayoyin hannu suna kara farashin ba tare da tsayawa ba.Ƙarshen ƙarancin shiru ne, babban matsayi yana swaggering, kuma yiwuwar rage farashin na dan lokaci kadan ne.Bugu da kari, ribar da kamfanonin kera wayoyin hannu na cikin gida ba su yi yawa ba.A baya can, a wajen taron Huawei Developer, mataimakin shugaban sashen kula da harkokin kasuwanci na kamfanin Huawei, Yang Haisong, ya bayyana cewa, ribar da kamfanonin kera wayoyin salula na kasar Sin ke samu ba ta da kyau, kuma yawan kasuwannin wayar salula na cikin gida ya fi rabi, amma kusan kashi 10%.riba.
Bugu da kari, kwakwalwan kwamfuta sun fadi da gaske, amma farashin sauran abubuwan ba su da kyau sosai, kamar na'urori masu auna sigina da allo.Samfuran ƙima suna ƙara zama na yau da kullun, kuma masana'antun wayar hannu suna da ƙaƙƙarfan buƙatu a zahiri akan sarkar samarwa.An ba da rahoton cewa OPPO, Xiaomi Ya taɓa keɓance keɓaɓɓen firikwensin zuwa Sony da Samsung.
Sakamakon haka, farashin wayoyin hannu ba ya karuwa, wanda ke zama alheri ga masu amfani.
Duban sabon makamashi, manyan kwakwalwan kwamfuta da suka rage farashin wannan lokacin ba a fagen kera motoci ba.Abin da ya fi haka, a farkon rabin shekara, hauhawar farashin sabbin motocin da’irori na kera makamashi bai yi daidai ba, kuma yana ƙaruwa akai-akai.Dalilan da ke bayansa ba duka ke haifar da kwakwalwan kwamfuta ba.bala'i.Farashin kayayyaki masu yawa suna tashi, kuma farashin nickel, karfe, da aluminum, gami da na'urorin lantarki masu inganci da mara kyau, suna hawa sama da ƙasa kawai, kuma farashin batura ya ragu.Babu shakka, waɗannan abubuwan ba za a iya zargi su akan guntu kawai ba.
Tabbas, ba abu ne mai wuya ba don ganin guntu ta sake kwarara a cikin da'irar kera motoci.Tun daga wannan shekara, farashin kwakwalwan kwamfuta masu fitar da haske na LED da kwakwalwan direba sun ragu da kashi 30% -40%, wanda babu shakka zai taka wata rawa wajen buffer farashin mota na gaba na masu motoci..
Baya ga wayowin komai da ruwan, guntuwar mabukaci suna da babban tasiri akan na'urorin gida masu wayo kamar na'urorin sanyaya iska da firiji.Bukatar MCUs na manyan fararen kaya guda uku a kasar Sin hakika ba ta da yawa, wanda ya karu daga miliyan 570 a cikin 2017 zuwa sama da miliyan 700 a cikin 2022, wanda MCU na iska mai haske ya kai sama da 60%.
Koyaya, kwakwalwan kwamfuta da aka yi amfani da su a cikin filin gida mai kaifin basira sune ƙananan ƙananan kwakwalwan kwamfuta tare da tsarin masana'antu na baya, waɗanda ke da alaƙa da ci gaba da tsarin masana'antu kamar 3nm da 7nm, waɗanda gabaɗaya sama da 28nm ko 45nm.Ka sani, waɗannan kwakwalwan kwamfuta ba su da girma a farashin raka'a saboda ƙarancin abun ciki na fasaha da aikace-aikace mai faɗi.
Ga kamfanonin kayan aikin gida, ƙananan fasaha yana nufin za su iya samun wadatar kansu.A cikin 2017, an kafa sashen microelectronics na Green;a cikin 2018, Konka ya sanar da kafa sashen fasaha na semiconductor;a cikin 2018, Midea ta sanar da shigarta cikin masana'antar guntu da kafa Kamfanin Meiren Semiconductor.A cikin Janairu 2021, an kafa Meiken Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd..A halin yanzu, sikelin samar da taro na shekara-shekara na kwakwalwan kwamfuta na MCU kusan miliyan 10 ne.
Dangane da kididdigar da ba ta cika ba, yawancin kamfanonin kayan aikin gida na gargajiya, da suka haɗa da TCL, Konka, Skyworth, da Haier, an riga an tura su a cikin filin semiconductor.A wasu kalmomi, wannan filin ba a iyakance shi da kwakwalwan kwamfuta kwata-kwata.
Kasa, ko a'a kasa?Wannan yanke farashin guntu ya fi kama da harbin ƙarya, kuma masana'antun na sama ba su ji daɗi a yanzu ba, balle masu amfani.
Lokacin aikawa: Agusta-23-2022